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Lucas Serme v Cameron Pilley (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 36,339, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 40,417, level confidence: 54%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Lucas Serme.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 83% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 51,891 and Cameron Pilley at a level of 28,304. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +30% and Cameron Pilley changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +5.9% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cameron Pilley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 84%, Cameron Pilley: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 59%, Cameron Pilley: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 38,326, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 38,549, level confidence: 51%.