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Todd Harrity v Max Lee (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 14-12,11-4,9-11,11-6.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 32,812, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Max Lee: 41,691, level confidence: 68%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Todd Harrity.

Todd Harrity won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 29% better than Max Lee in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 41,967 and Max Lee at a level of 32,596. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +24% and Max Lee changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +5% and for Max Lee becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 81%, Max Lee: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 63%, Max Lee: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 34,447, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Max Lee: 40,011, level confidence: 64%.