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Adrian Waller v George Parker (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-6,5-11,9-11,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 47,782, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Parker: 36,484, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 31% better than George Parker.

Adrian Waller won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 9% better than George Parker in this match.

As Adrian Waller has played below his allowed range at 42,597, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 46,656 (based on typical behaviour), George Parker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to -6% and George Parker changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes -1.7% and for George Parker becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 88%, George Parker: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 80%, George Parker: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 47,002, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for George Parker: 37,214, level confidence: 85%.