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Mostafa Asal v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Tue 21 May 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-7,11-8,9-11,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 41,457, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 32,232, level confidence: 53%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 30% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 41,671 and Abdulla Al-Tamimi at a level of 32,067. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +0.3% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +0.1% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 86%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 86%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 41,504, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 32,285, level confidence: 73%.