Joss Hargrave v Marcus Hayes (Thu 23 May 2019)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 5-11,11-6,3-11,11-6,7-11.
Starting level for
Joss Hargrave:
6,862, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,116, level confidence: 65%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Joss Hargrave.
Marcus Hayes won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
13% better than Joss Hargrave in this match.
As Marcus Hayes has played below his allowed range at 7,864, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 8,049 (based on typical behaviour), Joss Hargrave played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to -1.3% and Joss Hargrave changes to +1.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes -0.7% and for Joss Hargrave becomes +1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Allam British Karakal Masters Open Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 81%, Joss Hargrave: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 79%, Joss Hargrave: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joss Hargrave:
6,917, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,049, level confidence: 79%.