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Marcus Hayes v Graham Stanford (Mon 20 May 2019)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,000, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Graham Stanford: 4,119, level confidence: 40%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Graham Stanford.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 175% better than Graham Stanford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 9,519 and Graham Stanford at a level of 3,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +8.6% and Graham Stanford changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +3% and for Graham Stanford becomes -4.9%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +1.6% and for Graham Stanford is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 78%, Graham Stanford: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 66%, Graham Stanford: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,116, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Graham Stanford: 3,987, level confidence: 53%.