Sebastien Bonmalais v Robert Downer (Thu 16 May 2019)
Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-6,11-7,3-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Sebastien Bonmalais:
24,248, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
17,702, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Robert Downer.
Sebastien Bonmalais won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played
26% better than Robert Downer in this match.
As Sebastien Bonmalais has played below his allowed range at 22,548, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Sebastien Bonmalais would normally have been playing at level 23,493 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Downer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 2.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to -0.8% and Robert Downer changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes -0.3% and for Robert Downer becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA West Of Ireland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 78%, Robert Downer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 75%, Robert Downer: 81%.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais:
24,166, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
17,850, level confidence: 81%.