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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v James Willstrop (Wed 15 May 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 37,890, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,292, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 52% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of 52,129 and James Willstrop at a level of 34,374. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +33% and James Willstrop changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +6.3% and for James Willstrop becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Iker Pajares Bernabeu is limited to +5.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 87%, James Willstrop: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 63%, James Willstrop: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 39,963, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 45,219, level confidence: 69%.