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Patrick Rooney v Hugo Varela (Wed 15 May 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 17-15,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 31,222, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hugo Varela: 17,036, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Hugo Varela.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 52% better than Hugo Varela in this match.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 26,995 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 28,206 (based on typical behaviour), Hugo Varela played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to 0% and Hugo Varela changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes 0% and for Hugo Varela becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA West Of Ireland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 87%, Hugo Varela: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 79%, Hugo Varela: 85%.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 31,222, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Hugo Varela: 17,252, level confidence: 85%.