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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Daryl Selby (Tue 14 May 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-5,5-11,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 36,707, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 36,803, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 41% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of 43,605 and Daryl Selby at a level of 30,981. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +19% and Daryl Selby changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +4% and for Daryl Selby becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 89%, Daryl Selby: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 75%, Daryl Selby: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 38,048, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 35,650, level confidence: 78%.