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James Willstrop v Chris Simpson (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-7,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,996, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 38,369, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Chris Simpson.

James Willstrop won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 12% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 44,724, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 47,210 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Simpson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -3.4% and Chris Simpson changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -1.2% and for Chris Simpson becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 88%, Chris Simpson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 84%, Chris Simpson: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 47,416, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 38,966, level confidence: 86%.