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Mostafa Asal v Tom Richards (Mon 13 May 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 39,361, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,488, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Mostafa Asal.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 65% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 51,279 and Tom Richards at a level of 31,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +30% and Tom Richards changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +5.8% and for Tom Richards becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 77%, Tom Richards: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 59%, Tom Richards: 70%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 41,419, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 39,727, level confidence: 70%.