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Mostafa Asal v Jordan Warne (Sun 12 May 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 37,622, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jordan Warne: 11,360, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 231% better than Jordan Warne.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 560% better than Jordan Warne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 53,111 and Jordan Warne at a level of 8,047. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +21% and Jordan Warne changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +4.3% and for Jordan Warne becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 85%, Jordan Warne: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 60%, Jordan Warne: 60%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 39,247, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Jordan Warne: 11,060, level confidence: 60%.