Fredrik Johnson v Panna Vasiliou (Sun 17 Mar 2019)
Match won by Fredrik Johnson. Result: 11-3,11-1,11-3.
Starting level for
Fredrik Johnson:
10,933, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Panna Vasiliou:
5,493, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Fredrik Johnson to win as he is currently playing
99% better than Panna Vasiliou.
Fredrik Johnson won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fredrik Johnson played
371% better than Panna Vasiliou in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fredrik Johnson actually played at a level of
16,826 and Panna Vasiliou at a level of
3,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fredrik Johnson changes to +36% and Panna Vasiliou changes to -33%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fredrik Johnson becomes +8.6% and for Panna Vasiliou becomes -9.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Veteran SM 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Fredrik Johnson is limited to +7.8% and Panna Vasiliou is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fredrik Johnson: 82%, Panna Vasiliou: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fredrik Johnson: 53%, Panna Vasiliou: 55%.
Final level for Fredrik Johnson:
11,784, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Panna Vasiliou:
5,231, level confidence: 55%.