Adrian Waller v Arturo Salazar (Fri 10 May 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 5-11,11-1,11-4,11-2.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
46,651, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
38,166, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Arturo Salazar.
Adrian Waller won 75% of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 111% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
53% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of
52,264 and Arturo Salazar at a level of
34,067. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +9.3% and Arturo Salazar changes to -10.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +2.3% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 91%, Arturo Salazar: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 81%, Arturo Salazar: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
47,575, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
37,431, level confidence: 75%.