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Adrain Waller v Arturo Salazar (Fri 10 May 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 5-11,11-1,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 46,314, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 38,365, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Arturo Salazar.

Adrain Waller won 75% of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 111% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 53% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 52,211 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 34,032. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +10% and Arturo Salazar changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +2.4% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 90%, Arturo Salazar: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 80%, Arturo Salazar: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 47,292, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 37,589, level confidence: 75%.