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Alison Waters v Salma Hany (Fri 10 May 2019)

Match won by Alison Waters. Result: 11-6,11-9,9-11,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Alison Waters: 8,891, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,245, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Alison Waters to win as she is currently playing 8% better than Salma Hany.

Alison Waters won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alison Waters played 10% better than Salma Hany in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alison Waters actually played at a level of 8,966 and Salma Hany at a level of 8,176. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alison Waters changes to +0.8% and Salma Hany changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alison Waters becomes +0.4% and for Salma Hany becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manchester Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alison Waters: 85%, Salma Hany: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alison Waters: 84%, Salma Hany: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alison Waters: 8,849, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Salma Hany: 8,230, level confidence: 89%.