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Adrian Waller v Auguste Dussourd (Thu 09 May 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 46,106, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 31,156, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Auguste Dussourd.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 83% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 51,318 and Auguste Dussourd at a level of 27,992. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +8% and Auguste Dussourd changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +2% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 92%, Auguste Dussourd: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 83%, Auguste Dussourd: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 46,856, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 30,669, level confidence: 77%.