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Mohamed Elsherbini v David Baillargeon (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,505, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Baillargeon: 25,807, level confidence: 62%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 38% better than David Baillargeon.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 83% better than David Baillargeon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 40,986 and David Baillargeon at a level of 22,356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +10% and David Baillargeon changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +2.5% and for David Baillargeon becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 90%, David Baillargeon: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 78%, David Baillargeon: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 36,244, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Baillargeon: 25,208, level confidence: 68%.