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Mario Yanez v Youssef Soliman (Tue 07 May 2019)

Match won by Mario Yanez. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-4.

Starting level for Mario Yanez: 25,326, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 38,371, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Mario Yanez.

Mario Yanez won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mario Yanez played 70% better than Youssef Soliman in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mario Yanez actually played at a level of 40,645 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 23,909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 47% and 47% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mario Yanez changes to +47% and Youssef Soliman changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mario Yanez becomes +9% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mario Yanez is limited to +6% and Youssef Soliman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mario Yanez: 82%, Youssef Soliman: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mario Yanez: 51%, Youssef Soliman: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mario Yanez: 26,897, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 36,599, level confidence: 56%.