SquashLevels calculations
Adrian Waller v Henrik Mustonen (Tue 07 May 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-3.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
44,278, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Henrik Mustonen:
25,906, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Henrik Mustonen.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
65% better than Henrik Mustonen in this match.
In this case, Adrian Waller played at level 42,745 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Henrik Mustonen is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 92%, Henrik Mustonen: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 90%, Henrik Mustonen: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
44,340, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Henrik Mustonen:
26,022, level confidence: 84%.