Saurav Ghosal v Leo Au (Sun 05 May 2019)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-9,11-2,11-8.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
50,788, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
41,977, level confidence: 62%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Leo Au.
Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
74% better than Leo Au in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of
60,851 and Leo Au at a level of
35,035. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +18% and Leo Au changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +3.6% and for Leo Au becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 72%, Leo Au: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 60%, Leo Au: 66%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
52,403, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Leo Au:
41,200, level confidence: 66%.