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James Willstrop v Iker Pajares (Sat 04 May 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,063, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares: 37,857, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Iker Pajares.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 56% better than Iker Pajares in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 52,794 and Iker Pajares at a level of 33,748. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 10.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +10.9% and Iker Pajares changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +2.5% and for Iker Pajares becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 83%, Iker Pajares: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 74%, Iker Pajares: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 48,056, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Iker Pajares: 37,166, level confidence: 78%.