Leo Au v Tsz Fung Yip (Sat 04 May 2019)
Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-4.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
39,522, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
40,327, level confidence: 64%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Leo Au.
Leo Au won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played
120% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of
59,215 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
26,916. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +36% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -49%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +6.8% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -8.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leo Au is limited to +5.3% and Tsz Fung Yip is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 93%, Tsz Fung Yip: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 62%, Tsz Fung Yip: 54%.
Final level for Leo Au:
41,613, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
38,407, level confidence: 54%.