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Saurav Ghosal v Eain Yow Ng (Sat 04 May 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 47,998, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 37,602, level confidence: 65%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 175% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 70,450 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 25,618. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +40% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +7.1% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Saurav Ghosal is limited to +5% and Eain Yow Ng is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 77%, Eain Yow Ng: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 52%, Eain Yow Ng: 55%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,394, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 36,581, level confidence: 55%.