Greg Lobban v Gregoire Marche (Fri 03 May 2019)
Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-4,11-6,9-11,6-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
39,711, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
46,557, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Greg Lobban.
Greg Lobban won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played
14% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of
45,925 and Gregoire Marche at a level of
40,257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +14% and Gregoire Marche changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +3.2% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 91%, Gregoire Marche: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 78%, Gregoire Marche: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
40,928, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
45,218, level confidence: 78%.