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Leo Au v Muhammad Asim Khan (Thu 02 May 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Leo Au: 39,043, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 24,679, level confidence: 67%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.

Leo Au won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 106% better than Muhammad Asim Khan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 44,579 and Muhammad Asim Khan at a level of 21,614. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +9.3% and Muhammad Asim Khan changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +2.3% and for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 90%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 78%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 39,716, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 24,184, level confidence: 72%.