Max Lee v Tayyab Aslam (Thu 02 May 2019)
Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-5,12-10,8-11,11-1.
Starting level for
Max Lee:
43,044, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
29,018, level confidence: 57%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing
48% better than Tayyab Aslam.
Max Lee won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played
35% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.
In this case, Max Lee played at level 40,120 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 41,064 (based on typical behaviour), Tayyab Aslam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to 0% and Tayyab Aslam changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes 0% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 83%, Tayyab Aslam: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 79%, Tayyab Aslam: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Max Lee:
42,834, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
29,404, level confidence: 72%.