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Nafizwan Adnan v Robert Andrew Garcia (Thu 02 May 2019)

Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 13-11,11-8,15-13.

Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 34,833, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Robert Andrew Garcia: 15,948, level confidence: 60%.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Robert Andrew Garcia.

Nafizwan Adnan won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played 33% better than Robert Andrew Garcia in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nafizwan Adnan was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,313 and 34,833 without affecting his level.

As Nafizwan Adnan has played below his allowed range at 23,154, his level reduction is 9.3% before damping. On the assumption that Nafizwan Adnan would normally have been playing at level 29,694 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Andrew Garcia played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to -6.2% and Robert Andrew Garcia changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -1.8% and for Robert Andrew Garcia becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 76%, Robert Andrew Garcia: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 59%, Robert Andrew Garcia: 61%.

Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 34,217, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Robert Andrew Garcia: 16,458, level confidence: 61%.