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Mohamed Nabil v Arshad Iqbal Burki (Wed 01 May 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Nabil. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-2.

Starting level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,335, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Arshad Iqbal Burki: 9,215, level confidence: 18%.
Mohamed Nabil to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Arshad Iqbal Burki.

Mohamed Nabil won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Nabil played 89% better than Arshad Iqbal Burki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Nabil actually played at a level of 15,796 and Arshad Iqbal Burki at a level of 8,363. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil changes to +2.9% and Arshad Iqbal Burki changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil becomes +1.3% and for Arshad Iqbal Burki becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hyder Trophy' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Nabil: 71%, Arshad Iqbal Burki: 43%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Nabil: 64%, Arshad Iqbal Burki: 39%.

Final level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,527, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Arshad Iqbal Burki: 8,965, level confidence: 39%.