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Max Lee v Ong Sai Hung (Wed 01 May 2019)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Max Lee: 43,273, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ong Sai Hung: 14,221, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 204% better than Ong Sai Hung.

Max Lee won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 74% better than Ong Sai Hung in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Max Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,419 and 43,273 without affecting his level.

In this case, Max Lee played at level 28,336 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 32,507 (based on typical behaviour), Ong Sai Hung played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to 0% and Ong Sai Hung changes to +8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes 0% and for Ong Sai Hung becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 90%, Ong Sai Hung: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 68%, Ong Sai Hung: 65%.

Final level for Max Lee: 43,273, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Ong Sai Hung: 14,583, level confidence: 65%.