Nafizwan Adnan v Arhant Simha (Wed 01 May 2019)
Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-3.
Starting level for
Nafizwan Adnan:
35,166, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Arhant Simha:
3,805, level confidence: 33%.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing
824% better than Arhant Simha.
Nafizwan Adnan won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played
267% better than Arhant Simha in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nafizwan Adnan was taking it easy by anything up to 58%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,342 and 35,166 without affecting his level.
In this case, Nafizwan Adnan played at level 14,434 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nafizwan Adnan would normally have been playing at level 14,934 (based on typical behaviour), Arhant Simha played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to 0% and Arhant Simha changes to +1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes 0% and for Arhant Simha becomes +0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 91%, Arhant Simha: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 57%, Arhant Simha: 36%.
Final level for Nafizwan Adnan:
35,166, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Arhant Simha:
3,832, level confidence: 36%.