SquashLevels calculations
Saurav Ghosal v David Pelino (Wed 01 May 2019)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-2.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
45,368, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Pelino:
9,781, level confidence: 61%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
364% better than David Pelino.
Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
267% better than David Pelino in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Saurav Ghosal was taking it easy by anything up to 40%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,527 and 45,368 without affecting his level.
In this case, Saurav Ghosal played at level 35,864 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, David Pelino is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 91%, David Pelino: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 81%, David Pelino: 69%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
45,368, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for David Pelino:
9,781, level confidence: 69%.