Borja Golan v Gregoire Marche (Tue 30 Apr 2019)
Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 7-11,11-9,3-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Borja Golan:
40,224, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
45,596, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Borja Golan.
Gregoire Marche won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played
35% better than Borja Golan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of
49,774 and Borja Golan at a level of
36,847. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +7.3% and Borja Golan changes to -8.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +1.9% and for Borja Golan becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 91%, Borja Golan: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 83%, Borja Golan: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Borja Golan:
39,507, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
46,329, level confidence: 83%.