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Gregoire Marche v Simon Rösner (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-8,8-11,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 44,974, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 54,999, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Gregoire Marche.

Simon Rösner won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 22% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

There is no adjustment needed for this match. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to 0% and Gregoire Marche changes to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 87%, Gregoire Marche: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 87%, Gregoire Marche: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 45,073, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 55,005, level confidence: 87%.