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Lucas Serme v Alan Clyne (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 7-11,11-13,4-11.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 35,769, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 37,842, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Lucas Serme.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 58% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 46,208 and Lucas Serme at a level of 29,293. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +21% and Lucas Serme changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +4.4% and for Lucas Serme becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 89%, Lucas Serme: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 73%, Lucas Serme: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 34,540, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 39,319, level confidence: 73%.