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Gregoire Marche v Farkas Balázs (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 43,284, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Farkas Balázs: 27,764, level confidence: 51%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Farkas Balázs.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 83% better than Farkas Balázs in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 46,938 and Farkas Balázs at a level of 25,603. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 6.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +5.2% and Farkas Balázs changes to -6.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +1.5% and for Farkas Balázs becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 81%, Farkas Balázs: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 75%, Farkas Balázs: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,704, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Farkas Balázs: 27,398, level confidence: 66%.