Joel Makin v Nicolas Mueller (Sat 27 Apr 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-7,11-8,7-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
56,255, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
39,187, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Nicolas Mueller.
Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
23% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.
As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 49,921, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 54,025 (based on typical behaviour), Nicolas Mueller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -3.3% and Nicolas Mueller changes to +4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.1% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 83%, Nicolas Mueller: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 76%, Nicolas Mueller: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
55,593, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
39,871, level confidence: 82%.