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Declan James v Iker Pajares (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 7-11,11-8,12-10,15-13.

Starting level for Declan James: 40,361, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares: 38,349, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Iker Pajares.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 19% better than Iker Pajares in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 42,937 and Iker Pajares at a level of 36,049. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +6.2% and Iker Pajares changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +1.7% and for Iker Pajares becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 79%, Iker Pajares: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 74%, Iker Pajares: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 41,029, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Iker Pajares: 37,857, level confidence: 79%.