James Willstrop v Emyr Evans (Sat 27 Apr 2019)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-5.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
44,243, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Emyr Evans:
24,710, level confidence: 95%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
79% better than Emyr Evans.
James Willstrop won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
106% better than Emyr Evans in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
47,485 and Emyr Evans at a level of
23,023. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +5.4% and Emyr Evans changes to -4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +1.6% and for Emyr Evans becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 92%, Emyr Evans: 97%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 86%, Emyr Evans: 91%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
44,557, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Emyr Evans:
24,557, level confidence: 91%.