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Adrain Waller v Yannick Wilhelmi (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 44,881, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Yannick Wilhelmi: 18,386, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Yannick Wilhelmi.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 120% better than Yannick Wilhelmi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrain Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 30,227 and 44,881 without affecting his level.

In this case, Adrain Waller played at level 40,449 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Yannick Wilhelmi is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 82%, Yannick Wilhelmi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 78%, Yannick Wilhelmi: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 44,814, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Yannick Wilhelmi: 18,358, level confidence: 84%.