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Luke Power v Michael McLaughlin (Tue 16 Apr 2019)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-9,6-11,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Luke Power: 5,974, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,245, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Luke Power.

Michael McLaughlin won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 28% better than Luke Power in this match.

As Michael McLaughlin has played below his allowed range at 7,906, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Michael McLaughlin would normally have been playing at level 8,739 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Power played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to -2.4% and Luke Power changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes -1.2% and for Luke Power becomes +2.3%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Given Luke Power's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is -0.8% and for Luke Power is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 84%, Luke Power: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 76%, Luke Power: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke Power: 6,062, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,158, level confidence: 76%.