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Daryl Selby v Declan James (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 9-11,8-11,4-11.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 38,586, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 40,775, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Daryl Selby.

Declan James won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 56% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 49,611 and Daryl Selby at a level of 31,713. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +21% and Daryl Selby changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +4.3% and for Daryl Selby becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'English National Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 86%, Daryl Selby: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 71%, Daryl Selby: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,274, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Declan James: 42,299, level confidence: 71%.