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Tom Richards v Chris Simpson (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 12-10,11-7,10-12,9-11,11-9.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,191, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,826, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Chris Simpson.

Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 10% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 40,808 and Chris Simpson at a level of 37,254. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +1.5% and Chris Simpson changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +0.6% and for Chris Simpson becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'English National Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 86%, Chris Simpson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 85%, Chris Simpson: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 40,418, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,780, level confidence: 86%.