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Ali Farag v Tarek Momen (Thu 25 Apr 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 9-11,2-11,11-5,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 74,012, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 62,994, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Tarek Momen.

Ali Farag won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 7% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 70,096, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 73,466 (based on typical behaviour), Tarek Momen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -3.7% and Tarek Momen changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -1.2% and for Tarek Momen becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 89%, Tarek Momen: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 85%, Tarek Momen: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 73,159, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 63,867, level confidence: 86%.