Campbell Grayson v Richie Fallows (Thu 25 Apr 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
33,659, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
28,617, level confidence: 60%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Richie Fallows.
Campbell Grayson won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
28% better than Richie Fallows in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
35,176 and Richie Fallows at a level of
27,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +3.4% and Richie Fallows changes to -4.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +1.2% and for Richie Fallows becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 86%, Richie Fallows: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 82%, Richie Fallows: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
33,949, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
28,330, level confidence: 74%.