Fares Dessouky v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Wed 24 Apr 2019)
Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 15-13,11-4,8-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
52,580, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
64,480, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Fares Dessouky.
Fares Dessouky won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played
24% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of
64,809 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of
52,313. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +21% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +4.1% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 86%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 69%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
54,633, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
62,419, level confidence: 74%.