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Karim Abdel Gawad v Marwan Elshorbagy (Wed 24 Apr 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 58,269, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,516, level confidence: 67%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Marwan Elshorbagy.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 42% better than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 65,350 and Marwan Elshorbagy at a level of 45,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +9.6% and Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +2.2% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 89%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 80%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 59,377, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 50,428, level confidence: 73%.