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Richie Fallows v Patrick Rooney (Wed 24 Apr 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 7-11,11-8,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 27,467, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 30,814, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Richie Fallows.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 26% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 32,699 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 25,884. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +18% and Patrick Rooney changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +4.1% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 71%, Patrick Rooney: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 60%, Patrick Rooney: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 28,497, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,075, level confidence: 76%.