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Alan Clyne v Sebastian Bonmalais (Wed 24 Apr 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 39,020, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 22,997, level confidence: 55%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Sebastian Bonmalais.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 120% better than Sebastian Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 44,431 and Sebastian Bonmalais at a level of 20,196. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +7.7% and Sebastian Bonmalais changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +2% and for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 86%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 76%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 39,586, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 22,560, level confidence: 65%.